8/5/06

Scouting the SEC

Auburn is not only mentioned as a favorite to win the 2006 SEC championship, but also receiving strong consideration as a
potential national title contender.

Virtually every poll has the Tigers in the preseason top 10, with many voting them in the top 5 to start the year. The USA Today
Coaches' Poll (released 8/4) has Auburn starting at #6.

In 2004, Tommy Tuberville's squad ran the table and went undefeated to end the regular season, but the BCS placed the Tigers
third and they could only watch as the USC Trojans dismantled Oklahoma (55-19) in the Orange Bowl to claim the national
championship.

You'll probably never see an undefeated SEC champion left out in the cold again, but for the Tigers to begin to prove that
statement true they'll have to take care of a little SEC business first and that won't be easy.

The SEC West, one of the toughest divisions in college football, could be decided between Auburn and that other group of Tigers -
LSU - as early as the third week of the season. One Tiger team is sure to become the favorite as they square off in a huge SEC
game @ Auburn on September 16th.

That contest may in fact end up deciding the West champion, but another big factor in determining the winner may be the
schedule. Auburn possesses a big advantage over LSU in that 4 of its tougher games - LSU, Arkansas, Florida and Georgia - are
all at home. LSU, on the other hand, must face Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas, all on the road.

Alabama and Arkansas should also be considered contenders in the West.

The Crimson Tide, like LSU, faces a brutal SEC road schedule. They'll have to travel to Florida, LSU, Arkansas and Tennessee,
thus making a trip to the title game only a slim possibility for Bama.

Arkansas, on the other hand, is one of the more experienced teams in the country, returning 19 players, and their schedule isn't
near as difficult as LSU's or Alabama's. You'll get an early idea of what the Hogs' potential is as they host USC on September 2nd.
They may not come out on top in that one against the Trojans, but I do look for the Razorbacks to be one of the surprises of 2006.

In the East, the battle should end up being one between Florida, Tennessee and Georgia.

The schedule advantage would probably have to go to Georgia as they catch Tennessee between the hedges on October 7th and
will then only have to visit Auburn (Nov. 11th) and South Carolina.

The downside for Georgia, however, is that they have only 9 returning starters, but 4 of those 9 are preseason all-SEC picks.

Florida has several factors (returning players, coaching staff, etc…) working in its favor, but they'll have to face-off against
Tennessee and Auburn on the road. The edge for the Gators should be their talented senior quarterback, Chris Leak, who's now
had a full year to become better acquainted with Urban Meyer and his explosive offense.

Tennessee may have had a difficult season in '05, but look for a rebound in 2006. The Vols lost 3 games by 4 points or less and
had young quarterbacks learning on the run. The September 16th game with Florida (@ Tennessee) is sure to be an important
game in deciding the outcome of the East.

Picks:

Western Division:
Auburn
Tie - LSU/Arkansas
Alabama
Mississippi
Mississippi State

Eastern Division:
Florida
Tie - Georgia/Tennessee
South Carolina
Kentucky
Vanderbilt

National Title Contenders:
Auburn; Florida; LSU; Georgia; Tennessee

Watch out for: Arkansas

Early Indicators: USC @ Arkansas - September 2 (8:45PM - ESPN); Colorado @ Georgia - September 23rd; California @
Tennessee - September 2 (5:30PM - ESPN).

Big Games: LSU @ Auburn - Sept 16th; Florida @ Tennessee - September 16th; LSU @ Florida - October 7th; Florida @
Auburn - October 14th; Tennessee @ Georgia - October 7th; Georgia/Florida (Jacksonville) - October 28th; Auburn @ Alabama -
November 18th.


Big Players: QB Chris Leak (Florida); RB Kenny Irons (Auburn); WR Sidney Rice (South Carolina); LB Patrick Willis (Ole Miss);
DB LaRon Landry (LSU); DE Quentin Moses (Georgia); OL Arron Sears (Tennessee); LB Brandon Siler (Florida); RB Darren
McFadden (Arkansas)

Scouting the ACC

Any questions on the eventual ACC champion may be answered right out of the box - Florida State, the Atlantic Division favorite,
and Miami, the Coastal Division favorite, square off on BIG Monday (8:00PM - ESPN), September 4th.

The winner of that game should be the favorite to win the ACC championship and will surely receive a top 10 ranking.

NOTE: 4 Miami players have been suspended for the game against FSU. See story: http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/5836224

Miami should be favored in all of their games after FSU, but the Virginia Tech game (November 4) could be an interesting one and
will play a part in defining the season. The lone trouble spot on the road would have to be @ Louisville on September 18th. QB
Kyle Wright wasn't very efficient in '05, but I expect he'll bounce back and the Hurricanes will be there in the end, especially if they
can knock off Bowden's Seminoles to begin the season.

Florida State should be better - and healthier - than they were in '05. As usual, the Seminoles lost tons of players to the NFL, but
they're stacked up on the depth chart to replace them. There will be no shortage of talent in Tallahassee. Quarterback Drew
Weatherford and RB Lorenzo Booker will lead the way.

The other contenders for the ACC championship would have to be Clemson and Virginia Tech, with Georgia Tech and Boston
College on the outside looking in.

Clemson is an intriguing team. Much like Arkansas in the SEC, I expect the Tigers to be tough and could be a surprise before the
year is out. They're blessed with a good defense and a very strong running game behind sophomore James Davis. You should
know everything you'll need to know about the Tigers, however, after the third week of the season; they'll play in consecutive road
games against Boston College (Sept 9) and Florida State (Sept 16).

Speaking of surprises, Virginia Tech is always tough under Frank Beamer - and they play a cupcake schedule in '06. Circle Nov. 4
@ Miami as the most difficult task. The Hokies should be favored in every other game.

Boston College and Georgia Tech would be the other two teams that could surprise a time or two, but probably don't have the
ammunition to make a run at the championship. BC going to Miami (Nov 23) and FSU (Oct 21) probably takes them out of the mix.

Georgia Tech has to go to Virginia Tech and Clemson, in addition to out of conference games against Notre Dame to begin the
season and Georgia to end it.

Picks:

Atlantic Division:
Florida State
Clemson
Boston College
Maryland
NC State
Wake Forest

Coastal Division:
Miami
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Virginia
North Carolina
Duke

National Title Contenders:
Miami; Florida State; Virginia Tech

Watch Out For: Clemson

Early Indicators: Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech - Sept 2 (8:00PM ABC); Miami @ Louisville - Sept 16 (3:30PM ABC); Virginia
@ Pitt - Sept 2 (7:00PM ESPNU)

Big Games: Florida State @ Miami - Sept 4 (8:00PM ESPN); Clemson @ Florida State - Sept 16 (7:45PM ESPN); Clemson @
Virginia Tech - Oct 26 (7:30PM ESPN); Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech - Sept 30; Virginia Tech @ Miami - Nov 4

Big Players: WR Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech); QB Kyle Wright (Miami); RB James Davis (Clemson); QB Drew Weatherford
(Florida State); RB Lorenzo Booker (Florida State); DE Gaines Adams (Clemson).