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Breaking Down the Big 12 (South) A few years from now you may look back on 2006 as the year when everything changed in the Big 12 conference. No, I'm not talking about some miracle on the Brazos where Baylor crawls out of its cave and wins the Big 12 crown. And even though a number of cutting-edge pundits are beginning to predict it, I'm not even talking about a scenario where Texas Tech wins it, either. Things usually happen for a reason…. It's been 26 years (1980) since Baylor won its last championship. If you don't count Texas Tech's gift title (1994) - where A&M won but couldn't claim it because of their "summer jobs scandal" - then it's been 30 years (1976) since the last Red Raider title. On the other hand, since 1976, both Texas and Texas A&M have split 18 conference and South Division championships. Reason: Recruiting dominance While there are exceptions to the rule, championships are usually won by a select group of programs who happen to possess most of the built-in recruiting advantages. However, sudden changes (like OU/Bomar or A&M/Warren Gilbert) can take place and tilt the recruiting landscape, thus changing the conference pecking order at the top. Ex: Texas A&M dominated regionally (over Texas, OU and LSU) until about 1994. Between the years of 1984 and 1994, the Aggies won 10 of 11 games vs Texas, beat LSU five straight (1991 to 1995), and hammered OU by three touchdowns - both prior to the Big12 conference forming (1994), and after (1996). Then the summer jobs scandal and everything shifted. Since those late 80's, early 90's A&M clubs, Texas and Oklahoma have taken control. And aside from the Aggies' 1998 title, it's been either Oklahoma or Texas who has ended up playing in the Big 12 championship for each of the last 7 years. Is 2006 the year when things begin to change at the top of the Big12 South? If so, who can take charge and become the champion? Texas Tech: The Raiders, for the 4th straight year, have a new quarterback in Graham Harrell. I used to consider that a major question mark when evaluating any club for title consideration, but have since learned that Tech is a different breed. Mike Leach's quarterbacks will always throw for a zillion yards, no matter who's under center. The more important questions should probably be, who is Graham Harrell throwing to and can Shannon Woods replace Taurean Henderson at running back? The wide receiver question - Experienced, retuning starters are at every spot…..Joel Filani, Danny Amendola, Robert Johnson and Jarrett Hicks simply give the quarterback plenty of top-notch targets to throw to. Hicks is the star, but this group as a whole is likely to be the best at Tech in a number of years. 3 of the 4 returning starters hauled in over 60 catches a piece in '05. The RB question - The jury is still out on Shannon Woods as to whether he can be as productive as Henderson. In fact, I don't see how he can, but he just needs to be adequate to make the Tech arial attack function. As if the Raiders didn't have enough firepower already, led by Manual Ramirez and four senior starters, the offensive line should give the young QB plenty of experienced protection. The bottom line on the Tech offense is that 8 starters return to a unit that gained almost 6000 yards last year. The Red Raiders will have absolutely no problem moving the ball - on anyone, and they'll score plenty of points. The main question as always in Lubbock is will the defense hold up and be able to slow people down to the point that the game can eventually be won? A couple of starters return on the defensive line and a couple at LB - Fletcher Session and Kenyuta Dawson. While that makes for a decent start, there may be depth issues because that is all the returnees there are. A Texas Tech team under Mike Leach that has depth issues on defense is cause for concern because of the amount of time they'll usually spend on the field. Dwayne Slay will be a very big loss! Both punter (Alex Reyes) and kicker (Alex Trilica) return. Baylor: The Bears, coming off a 5-6 season in 2005, are hoping to make it to a bowl game in '06 - and they may. You've seen steady improvement under Guy Morriss, but, with only 4 starters returning on defense and a conference as tough as the Big12, that could be a very tall task. In order for Baylor to be as successful as they were last year they'll have to play to their strengths and duplicate some things they created on defense if they're going to improve upon 5-6. After nine straight years of finishing in the basement of the Big12, Baylor won two conference games last year for the first time ever. That was accomplished - in large part - because of a solid defense (by Baylor standards) that created 29 turnovers and held opponents to an output of 26 points/game. The Bear strengths are obvious - 8 returning starters on offense (1 being the kicker, Ryan Havens), with two standout senior receivers, Trent Shelton and Dominique Zeigler, and a solid OL backed up by a senior quarterback, Shawn Bell. If the young Bear defenders can duplicate the improvements of a year ago, specifically in creating turnovers, then there is definitely a chance for Baylor to break that long bowl drought. However, they could finally get to a bowl and still finish last the Big12 South. Coach Morriss speaks of taking the next step and that the days of finishing last are over, but breaking the trend could be a tall task. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys of Oklahoma State could be in for a long season, not because they lack talent, but because they play in arguably the toughest division in the country. Many folks are picking the Cowboys down the list, and that could be so, but this writer thinks it's possible for this team to surprise. That opinion is mostly based on OSU possessing some Big12 caliber players (and depth) along the defensive front. Victor Degrate, Nathan Peterson, Ryan McBean and Xavier Lawson Kennedy are the starters, but there is also plenty in reserve behind the starters. The DL strength alone should be enough to push Oklahoma State past Baylor and out of the cellar in the final standings. Led by quarterback Bobby Reid and the Big12's Offensive Newcomer of the Year, RB Mike Hamilton, OSU returns 6 starters on offense. Add capable WR's D'Juan Woods and Ricky Price and you have the makings of a solid unit that could be tough to stop. If the Cowboys can just move the ball through the air a little bit then they could possibly squeak into a low-level bowl with the minimum 6 wins Texas A&M: The Aggies are one of the 6 or so teams in the country who have the talent and resources necessary to make a charge up the rankings. Finish in the top 3 of the Big12 South and you're sure to be ranked in the top 20, maybe even higher. It's not just one single area that has Aggie fans getting excited about the season, but a number of things all coming together at once that point to the possibility of a breakout year in Aggieland. A fiery and talented quarterback in Stephen McGee; a strong OL with depth; running backs with an explosive and take-it-to the house ability; a new 4-2-5 defense that should allow more speed on the field; more speed and another year of experience for a majority of the players in the secondary; a new set of coaches making for a new attitude amongst defenders, making for a more inspired and aggressive style of play; te's that can not only block, but also be used effectively in the passing game. Speaking of the pass game, many are wondering if Stephen McGee can throw enough to balance the offense. I'll answer for him - Yes! He has above average pass skills in the first place, but, when teams stack 8-9 guys in the box to stop the run, he'll be even that much more effective….see Vince Young Why would someone have to stack 9? Check the last two games last year to find the answer to that question. This team, with a more experienced quarterback and offensive line, is already difficult to defend on the ground and now you've just added more explosive players to the mix. Michael Goodson is my pick to win the Big12 Offensive Newcomer of the year award. Courtney Lewis returns, but the thought of those two being in the backfield at the same time ought to concern every defensive coordinator in the Big12. Goodson is a legitimate NFL talent. The defense will improve. It may not reach top 30 levels, but it won't end number 107 either. A&M, if it were to get by Tech at home, has a real chance to run off to a 9-0 start. They'll then catch OU and Nebraska at home after that. Again, the schedule is just another item that points to this season being a great one. Texas: They are loaded at every position and this could be the Horns' best defense under Mack Brown, but will the new quarterback - either Jevan Snead or Colt McCoy - be able to distribute the ball to the right people and minimize mistakes enough to allow for success? That is the question of the year for Texas. I think everyone had already conceded that the Horns wouldn't repeat as national champions with a new quarterback, but then OU stumbled with the Bomar news and many Longhorns suddenly began to realize that Ohio State (@ Austin) could be the only obstacle between them and a return trip to the title game. The OL, led by Justin Blaylock, should be solid and dominating; the WR's capable if not spectacular; the TE - Jermichael Finley - a star in the making; the RB - Jamaal Charles - a bolt of lightning. The defense will control most every game Texas plays, but in the end - especially against the quality opponents - the outcome will be determined by whether or not the offense can score enough to win. I say it will in at least 10 games. Oklahoma: The Sooners were the odds on favorite to take the Big12 title until news of players taking exorbitant amounts of money for work they didn't perform began to surface. Their defense was supposed to be a little better than most (actually AWESOME!) and their quarterback play was expected to be better than Texas, but now, oh now, what to do….? Paul Thompson is the quick fix, but when you add that he'd already been moved to WR and that the OL was a major question mark anyway - even before losing the starter at RG, JD Quinn - things have suddenly gone from making Championship game plans to trying to figure a way out of the Cotton Bowl. The defense, led by a tough defensive front, will be stout at every position. Rufus Alexander leads the linebackers and cornerback starters DJ Wolfe and Reggie Smith return in the secondary. They'll be good, very good, but like Texas will they be able to score enough against the better teams? Projected standings: 1) Texas A&M --- BCS 2) Texas-------------BCS (Tie) Texas Tech/OU -New Years and Holiday Bowl 5) Oklahoma State - Bowl eligible 6) Baylor - Bowl eligible Big Players (offense): Graham Harrell (QB-Tech); Stephen McGee (QB-A&M); Jamaal Charles (RB-Texas); Jarrett Hicks (WR - Tech); Martellus Bennett (TE-A&M); Mike Hamilton (RB - Oklahoma State); Adrian Peterson (RB - Oklahoma); Courtney Lewis (RB-A&M); Joel Filani (WR-Tech); Justin Blaylock (OL-Texas); Kasey Studdard (OL-Texas); Manny Ramirez (OL-Tech); Yemi Babalola (OL-A&M); Kirk Elder (OL-A&M) Newcomers: Michael Goodson -A&M; Jevan Snead - Texas; Big Players (defense): Calvin Thibodeaux (DE-OU); DeMarcus Granger (DT-OU); Franklin Okam (DT-Texas);Victor DeGrate (DE-OSU); Justin Warren (LB-A&M); Rufus Alexander (LB-OU); Rashad Bobino (LB-Texas); Reggie Smith (CB-OU); Newcomers: Sergio Kindle (LB-Texas); Misi Tupi (LB-A&M); Mark Dodge (LB-A&M); Andre Sexton (DB-OSU); Chris Collins (LB-OSU); Johnathan Batson (DB-A&M); Antonio Jones (LB-Baylor) Big Games: Ohio State @ Texas (Sept 9); Texas/Oklahoma (Dallas-Oct 7); Texas Tech @ Texas A&M (Sept 30); Oklahoma @ Texas A&M (Nov 4); Texas @ Texas Tech (Oct 28); Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (Nov 25) |