|
|
Texas A&M vs California - 2007 Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - San Diego, California - 7:00 p.m. ESPN As No. 20 California and No. 21 Texas A&M prepare for the 2006 Pacific Life Holiday Bowl, both programs appear headed in different directions. After running to an 8-1 start and being razor-close to a season that many would have remembered forever, Texas A&M suffered two one-point November defeats (17-16 to Oklahoma and 28-27 to Nebraska) that appeared to take the steam out of the program, and left many fans wondering what could have been. But the Aggies rebounded with their biggest victory in Dennis Franchione's four seasons in Aggieland, a 12-7 pounding of arch-rival Texas. The score alone wouldn't necessarily lead one to think of the game as a program-changer, but it wasn't just the score that helped define the outcome. The Aggies not only accumulated 240+ rush yards against the nation's top-ranked defense - in Austin - but delivered the bone-jarring hits that helped seal the deal. Eyes have suddenly opened as to the possibilities within the A&M program, next year and beyond. A victory over a respected California program will only enhance the perception that the Aggies have in fact turned the corner. No. 20 Cal was being thought of at the start of the season as a legitimate threat to USC for the PAC 10 title and an outside contender for the national championship. The Golden Bears, with exciting NFL-type players at several key offensive positions, won eight-straight after losing the opener to Tennessee in Knoxville. Cal, like the Aggies, was 8-1 through nine weeks and looking forward to their annual showdown with the USC Trojans. Unlike A&M, however, the Bears' season finished on a down note, losing to unranked Arizona in Tucson, and then following that up with a loss to No. 4 USC, 23-9. The Bears then limped home with a lackluster win over lowly Stanford, 26-17. A victory over a fast-rising A&M will help to justify the Bear's existence and solidify their position as a top 20 program. Which team gets to use the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl as a springboard to the 2007 season? When the Bears have the ball: Cal is led on offense by quarterback Nate Longhsore. The sophomore signal-caller is averaging 232 yards per game through the air, completing 208 of 353 passes for 2,786 yards and 23 touchdowns, but the real difference for the Golden Bears is two very explosive players - RB Marshawn Lynch and WR DeSean Jackson. A&M hasn't seen a group of skill players this talented all season long, so it will be critical for the Aggies to control the ball on the offensive side in order to try and keep the explosive Cal talent off the field. Lynch, a top NFL prospect, has rushed for 1,245 yards (6.1 avg.) and 9 touchdowns and Jackson has pulled in 54 catches for 979 yards and 9 touchdowns. And it doesn't stop there as two other Cal players with 40 + catches on the season - Lavelle Hawkins (42-672-4) and Robert Jordan (43-511-4) - are also major contributors. Lynch has also chipped in 31 receptions for 311 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Bears have the 12th ranked offense (16th pass - 38th rush) in the NCAA. The Wrecking Crew has been improving every game out and Longshore has proven error-prone against the better defenses, but I would guess that Cal will get their yards. They're just too explosive and possess too many skill weapons for A&M to contain all night. But again, just as it has seemed all season long, will the Aggies be able to play keep away? If they can't then it could turn into a long night for the Aggie defenders. Advantage California Key Match-ups: Texas A&M's Justin Warren against Cal RB Marshawn Lynch; Texas A&M CB's Danny Gorrer and Jordan Peterson against Cal WR's DeSean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan. When the Aggies have the ball: Texas A&M has clear advantages on this side of the ball and it's a good thing they do. More than any game this season, the Ags really need to control the game offensively. Defensively the Bears rank 92nd nationally, allowing 376 + yards per game, possessing a No. 49 ranking (127 yards per) against the run. A&M, on the other hand, ranks 19th in total offense, gaining 401 + per game and brings a No. 7 rush rank (210 + yards per) on the year into the game. Suffice to say, the Aggies will most certainly get their yards on the ground. It's my opinion that the Aggies have faced significantly better defensive teams this season on a week-by-week basis in the Big 12 conference and have still managed to pile up the numbers on the ground. I don't really see that changing here in this game. I also don't believe that Cal has faced a team that can line up and churn out the ground yards that the Aggies can, so this should be a difficult task for the Golden Bears to handle, especially when analyzing their defensive numbers on the year. Look for Mike Goodson, Stephen McGee and Jorvorskie Lane to have BIG games. The interesting thing to consider on this side of the ball is that Cal, led by MLB Desmond Bishop and CB Daymeion Hughes (8 interceptions), do possess some big athletes and talented people. It's a fairly safe bet to think that the Bears will attempt to load the box in order to change the tone of the game, but their 113th ranked pass defense could allow Tellus' 'Legion of Doom' to enjoy a big game as well, especially if the Cal safeties ignore the middle of the field while focusing on run support. Advantage Texas A&M Special Teams and Other Intangibles: Cal and Texas A&M both enter the game with identical 9-3 records. The Aggies have a slight advantage in protecting the football (+.75), but Cal isn't far behind (+.45). Cal definitely holds the advantage in punt returns, ranking 4th in the country, but the Aggies match that in kick returns, ranking 2nd nationally. Net punting is basically even with both clubs having a net average of about 37.5 yards/punt. The biggest difference here is that Cal kicker - Tom Schneider - has hit on 14-18 field goals, missing only one attempt (42 yarder vs. Stanford) inside 50 yards. This probably gives Cal the edge in this category. Adavantage Cal PREDICTION: You could analyze this one until you're blue in the face, but this game - just like most that have been played before it - will depend on three very important categories: Which team will be more effective at running the ball; which team will be more effective at stopping the run; and who will be better at protecting the football. Texas A&M has been better than Cal in every one of those very critical areas throughout the year and I expect they'll lead in those areas as this game unfolds. Quite simply, that why I expect the Aggies to win..... Texas A&M 31, California 24 Texas A&M Roster Texas A&M Depth Chart California Roster California Depth Chart Pacific Life Holiday Bowl |